Here is a running list of studies showing that the transmission rate of COVID-19 in asymptomatic cases is extremely low, or even nonexistent.
“But from the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” – Maria Van Kerkhove, June 8, 2020
1. Jama Network Open [December 14, 2020]
TITLE: Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
METHODS: “All articles with original data for estimating household secondary attack rate were included. Case reports focusing on individual households and studies of close contacts that did not report secondary attack rates for household members were excluded.
“Meta-analyses were done using a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator model to yield a point estimate and 95% CI for secondary attack rate for each subgroup analyzed, with a random effect for each study. To make comparisons across exposure types, study was treated as a random effect, and exposure type was a fixed moderator. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed.”
CONCLUSION: “A total of 54 relevant studies with 77 758 participants reporting household secondary transmission were identified. Estimated household secondary attack rate was 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%), higher than secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV (7.5%; 95% CI, 4.8%-10.7%) and MERS-CoV (4.7%; 95% CI, 0.9%-10.7%). Household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) than from asymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%), to adult contacts (28.3%; 95% CI, 20.2%-37.1%) than to child contacts (16.8%; 95% CI, 12.3%-21.7%), to spouses (37.8%; 95% CI, 25.8%-50.5%) than to other family contacts (17.8%; 95% CI, 11.7%-24.8%), and in households with 1 contact (41.5%; 95% CI, 31.7%-51.7%) than in households with 3 or more contacts (22.8%; 95% CI, 13.6%-33.5%).
The findings of this study suggest that given that individuals with suspected or confirmed infections are being referred to isolate at home, households will continue to be a significant venue for transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
To study the transmissibility of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 index cases, eFigure 8 in the summarizes 27 studies reporting household secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases and 4 studies from asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases. Estimated mean household secondary attack rate from symptomatic index cases (18.0%; 95% CI, 14.2%-22.1%) was significantly higher than from asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases (0.7%; 95% CI, 0%-4.9%; P < .001), although there were few studies in the latter group. These findings are consistent with other household studies reporting asymptomatic index cases as having limited role in household transmission.
2. Nature Communications [November 2020]
TITLE: Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China
METHODS: “Wuhan has about 11 million residents in total, with seven urban and eight suburban districts. Residents are living in 7280 residential communities (or residential enclosures, “xiao-qu” in Chinese), and each residential community could be physically isolated from other communities for preventing transmission of COVID-19.
“The screening programme recruited residents (including recovered COVID-19 patients) currently living in Wuhan who were aged ≥6 years (5,162,960 males, 52.2%). All participants provided written or verbal informed consent after reading a statement that explained the purpose of the testing. For participants who aged 6–17 years old, consent was obtained from their parents or guardians. The study protocol for an evaluation of the programme based on anonymized screening data was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Tongji Medical College Institutional Review Board, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China (No. IROG0003571).”
CONCLUSION:
“The citywide nucleic acid screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan recruited nearly 10 million people, and found no newly confirmed cases with COVID-19. The detection rate of asymptomatic positive cases was very low, and there was no evidence of transmission from asymptomatic positive persons to traced close contacts. There were no asymptomatic positive cases in 96.4% of the residential communities.
“Previous studies have shown that asymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus were infectious, and might subsequently become symptomatic. Compared with symptomatic patients, asymptomatic infected persons generally have low quantity of viral loads and a short duration of viral shedding, which decrease the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious.
“There was a low repositive rate in recovered COVID-19 patients in Wuhan. Results of virus culturing and contract tracing found no evidence that repositive cases in recovered COVID-19 patients were infectious, which is consistent with evidence from other sources. A study in Korea found no confirmed COVID-19 cases by monitoring 790 contacts of 285 repositive cases. The official surveillance of recovered COVID-19 patients in China also revealed no evidence on the infectiousness of repositive cases. Considering the strong force of infection of COVID-19, it is expected that the number of confirmed cases is associated with the risk of being infected in communities. We found that asymptomatic positive rates in different districts of Wuhan were correlated with the prevalence of previously confirmed cases. This is in line with the temporal and spatial evolution (especially the long-tailed characteristic) of infectious diseases.
“Existing laboratory virus culture and genetic studies showed that the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 virus may be weakening over time, and the newly infected persons were more likely to be asymptomatic and with a lower viral load than earlier infected cases. With the centralized isolation and treatment of all COVID-19 cases during the lockdown period in Wuhan, the risk of residents being infected in the community has been greatly reduced. When susceptible residents are exposed to a low dose of virus, they may tend to be asymptomatic as a result of their own immunity. Serological antibody testing in the current study found that at least 63% of asymptomatic positive cases were actually infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus. Nonetheless, it is too early to be complacent, because of the existence of asymptomatic positive cases and high level of susceptibility in residents in Wuhan. Public health measures for the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic, including wearing masks, keeping safe social distancing in Wuhan should be sustained. Especially, vulnerable populations with weakened immunity or co-morbidities, or both, should continue to be appropriately shielded.
“Findings from this study show that COVID-19 was well controlled in Wuhan at the time of the screening programme. After two months since the screening programme (by August 9, 2020), there were no newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan. Further testing of SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from market environment settings in Wuhan were conducted, and found no positive results after checking a total of 52,312 samples from 1795 market setting during June 13 to July 2, 2020.”
“The screening of the 9,865,404 participants without a history of COVID-19 found no newly confirmed COVID-19 cases, and identified 300 asymptomatic positive cases with a detection rate of 0.303 (95% CI 0.270–0.339)/10,000. The median age-stratified Ct-values of the asymptomatic cases were shown in Supplementary Table 1. Of the 300 asymptomatic positive cases, two cases came from one family and another two were from another family. There were no previously confirmed COVID-19 patients in these two families. A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases were traced, and they all tested negative for the COVID-19. There were 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 cases who participated in the screening. Of the 34,424 participants with a history of COVID-19, 107 tested positive again, giving a repositive rate of 0.310% (95% CI 0.423–0.574%).”
3. Respiratory Medicine [May 13, 2020]
TITLE: A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers
METHODS: “455 contacts who were exposed to the asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carrier became the subjects of our research. They were divided into three groups: 35 patients, 196 family members and 224 hospital staffs. We extracted their epidemiological information, clinical records, auxiliary examination results and therapeutic schedules.”
CONCLUSION: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
4. JAMA Network Open [October 29, 2021]
TITLE: Contact and SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among College Football Athletes in the Southeastern Conference During the COVID-19 Pandemic
METHODS:
“The SEC implemented a system for remote sensing and automated logging of interactions and proximity between players wearing tracking devices (KINEXON). Athletes in the SEC underwent SARS-CoV-2 surveillance by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing at least 3 times per week, and athletes testing positive within 48 hours of game play were traced for potential exposures and subsequent infections over 14 days using the CDC close contact definition of 15 or more cumulative minutes spent within 6 feet of an infected person.
In this cohort study, we analyzed opposing player contact events (ie, within 6-feet proximity) recorded during official game times and SEC testing data for athletes in play. Analyses were done in Stata version 15 (StataCorp). The institutional review board at Texas A&M University reviewed this analysis and waived informed consent requirements because data were entirely de-identified.”
CONCLUSION: “In this analysis of US college athletes playing regular season SEC football games during the COVID-19 pandemic, no instances of in-game SARS-CoV-2 transmission was found. This is similar to the National Football League (NFL) and Super League reports, where game-related close contact exposure was not described. The SEC early-season peak SARS-CoV-2 incidence also mirrors the NFL experience. The rigorous SEC testing regime makes it unlikely that infections, even if asymptomatic or early in the infection period, went undetected.”
Feature image: Studio Incendo
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